Analysis of Complex Operational Systems: The First Step Towards Calculating Risk State
Risk analysis of any complex operational system begins with mathematical modeling of interactions among its constituent elements and subelements.
What is a Complex Operational System (COS)?
An operational system is a composite of elements including personnel, procedures, tools, equipment, facilities, environment, hardware, and software. A system is considered to be complex if interdependent elements interact in the operational environment. In a complex operational system, elements respond to each other and to environmental forces. Operational safety margins prevent system elements from exceeding critical thresholds, maintaining the operational system away from state transitions into nonlinearity or tipping points.
The Role of Human Operators
Human operators employ standard operating procedures (SOPs), tactics, techniques, processes, proficiency, technology, equipment, and infrastructure to carry out operational activities, while maintaining the system within safety margins.
Analysis of the Human Element, Infrastructure, and Environmental Domains
Once the description of the interactions and influences ruling the system’s constituent elements is completed, it is necessary to assess the capacity state of each element. This section provides influence diagrams, rating scales, and formulas used to depict the development or functional state of the Human Element, Infrastructure, and Environmental domains.
Once the description of the interactions and influences ruling the system’s constituent elements is completed, it is necessary to assess the capacity state of each element. This section provides influence diagrams, rating scales, and formulas used to depict the development or functional state of the Human Element, Infrastructure, and Environmental domains.